Trump, Cruz, and Rubio Walk into a Bar

The looming shadow of a contested convention is starting to cast itself across the land of conservatism.  There are several things we need to consider dear reader:

1)  The establishment (aka the Republican National Committee) cannot let Donald Trump become the candidate of choice for the Party in the 2016 election.

2) Following the Establishment candidate of choice has been a bottom up affair.  I am not plugged into the know and therefore cannot prove this, but I believe that the obvious choice for establishment candidate to be Cruz.  I do not believe that to be the case; it's Rubio and I will explain more later.

3) We have a four man race, and with the stakes as high as they are, that is two too many.

4) Both parties face  the threat of independent third party candidates crashing their plans.

The Democrats are gathering the data they need to control you.

The establishment has had a big problem on it's hands since 2008; nobody in their right mind wants to be the President of the United States in this modern era.  Not only do we have all the problems of a modern industrialized country, but we also have a war that has been raging since 2001; we have had a terrible economy that only looks good to a third grader; every system designed to keep humanity from destroying itself (NATO, UN, European Union, OPEC) is unraveling at an alarming rate; the nouveau Soviets are the freaking GOOD guys on the global stage; China is doing as it damn well pleases in the South Pacific; North Korea has actually matured its military into an actual threat to the US and what few solid allies we have left; and the job of President of the United States has been molded into Dictatorship.

This is why in 2008, the Republican field had the biggest RINO of the all who wanted to loose.  John McCain simply handed the future of America to the Communist.  Then in 2012 the field of Republican Candidates was like some freak show.  Every single one of the candidates was from central casting; each was unprepared to make a serious show as being President.  When when Mitt Romney became the candidate; he never acted like he really wanted the job.  Then we found out later that he really didn't have his heart in it.  The Democrats were handed a no restrictions control over the future of our nation for eight years.  There have been terrible leadership from the Republicans; turning Congress as a whole into a joke.  Nobody wanted to mount a serious challenge to the President; the path to reconstruction is bleak and nobody wants to do what it will take to rebuild the Republic.  So it is.  The Republic of the United States, which has a very good record for a continued and mostly uninterrupted government, has finally reached the Thomas Jefferson line.

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.      -Thomas Jefferson

The Republican Party has to field a "company man" who will do the bidding of the establishment and be a good errand boy.  The problem they face is that the two people who will likely not play ball by their rules are the front runners.  I mentioned that I thought that Marco Rubio was their boy and I stand by that.  There is no longer any reason for him to be in the race; it is mathematically impossible for him to win.  Yet he is still in the race; because he is following orders.  That also addresses point three; which has to do the mathematics of winning.

In order to win the position of Republican Candidate a person has to score 1,237 delegates.  Since the Republicans have much fewer Super Delegates than the Democrats, it is anybody's game.  Since there are fewer Super Delegates to impose the will of the party onto itself the Party has be creative to stack the deck.  It goes a little something like this.

Since the Republicans cannot get Trump and Cruz under control they have to water down the delegates that will go to them.  By keeping the bottom feeders in play, who may actually win a few states, they deny these votes to the top two and when the convention comes around there is a chance nobody will get enough votes to cinch the win.  This brings further rounds of voting where none of the electors are beholden to vote for the people they were sent to vote for.  This creates a situation where the candidates have to start brokering deals to get votes.  This is where the establishment gets its chance to force its will.  Just watch.

Get along little voters.

The nuclear option.  The Republican National Committee wins its way and gets their candidate of choice.  The slighted parties exact their revenge by running third party; therefore taking all of their supporters with them.  When this happens in a normal election cycle it pretty much means that the party that they are targeting is going to loose.  This cycle has the unique situation of there being a lot of huge egos in play and therefore a high chance of both sides of this happening.  This might mean that we will end up with a four way race; each person would also have the added bonus of actually winning.  

Keep you eyes on the ball and ask yourself what is really going on.  This will be a race for the history books.

Until next time,

Keep your eyes open.